Daniel Covarrubias
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Where U.S. Tariffs Stand

Live snapshot of tariffs under IEEPA, Section 232, and Section 301. Track the China reciprocal tariff regime, model landed costs, and monitor policy changes in real-time.

Decision Trees
Cost Calculators
Risk Scores
Escalation Monitor
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China Reciprocal
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USMCA Non-Compliant
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Section 301 Active
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LIVE RESEARCH PROTOTYPE

Tariff Pulse

A timeline of implemented U.S. tariff actions under IEEPA and Section 232 since Apr 3, 2025 — grouped by month with sources.

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North America tariff stack — Nov 2025

Quick reference compiled from the CBP/White House PDF shared Nov 3 & the Nov 14 agricultural executive order.

Executive Order Tariffs (North America stack)

Based on the CBP/White House reference tables circulated Nov 3. Exec. Order 14289 keeps 2025 tariffs non-cumulative — useful when modeling Mexico/Canada exposure.

EO 14289 — Order of preference

90 FR 18907

Duty rate

Priority logic (no stacked duties)

Start / status

Mar 4, 2025 (retroactive)

1) Section 232 automotive, 2) Section 232 steel/aluminum/copper/timber, 3) IEEPA country baselines & reciprocal tariffs. Refunds processed per CSMS 65054270 / 65236574 while litigation (V.O.S. v. U.S.) continues.

Country-of-origin IEEPA — Mexico & Canada

EO 14193/14194 · 90 FR 9113 · 90 FR 9185

Duty rate

Mexico 25% · Canada 35% (10% potash & energy)

Start / status

Mar 4, 2025 (MX) • Aug 1, 2025 (CA 35%)

USMCA/T-MEC qualified imports stay exempt. Entries flagged as transshipped into MX/CA lose the exemption and face an additional 40% duty per CSMS 64649265, 64724565, 65201773, 65798609.

Reciprocal Tariffs (worldwide IEEPA)

EO 14257/14259 · 90 FR 37963 · Nov 14, 2025 agricultural EO

Duty rate

10% baseline; 10–40% country rates; +40% penalty

Start / status

Apr 5, 2025 (baseline) · Aug 7, 2025 (country lists)

Does not apply to Mexico or Canada. EU follows a ≤15% “method” (top-up only). Updated Annex II exemptions (Nov 14, 2025 order) temporarily remove selected agricultural HTS codes headed for aligned partners.

Section 232 Programs impacting USMCA supply chains

Key automotive and industrial duties now in force.

Automotive goods (Proc. 10908 / 10925)

Proc. 10908 · CSMS 64624801 · 64913145 · 64916652

Duty rate

25% ad valorem (vehicles & parts)

Start / status

Apr 3, 2025 (vehicles) · May 3, 2025 (parts)

USMCA content offsets allow importers to deduct verified U.S. value (3.75% of MSRP in Year 1; 2.5% in Year 2). Offsets can only reduce Section 232 liability on covered parts/vehicles (see 90 FR 14705, 21450, 25207, 48451).

Steel & aluminum (Proc. 10896 / 10895 / 10947)

90 FR 9817 · 90 FR 9807 · CSMS 64348411

Duty rate

50% on steel, aluminum & derivatives

Start / status

Jun 4, 2025

No USMCA exemption. Derivative appliance coverage expanded June 23, 2025 (90 FR 25208). Non-steel or non-aluminum content may still owe reciprocal duties.

Copper products (EO 14420 / Proc. 10962)

Duty rate

50% on semi-finished Cu & intensive derivatives

Start / status

Aug 1, 2025

Duty assessed on copper content. Non-Cu articles continue to follow steel/aluminum/reciprocal logic (HTS 9903.01.33 exception). Drawback unavailable. (90 FR 11940; 90 FR 37727).

Wood products & commercial vehicles

New 4Q 2025 proclamations now appearing in CBP CSMS feeds.

Timber, cabinetry, upholstered furniture (Proc. 10976)

90 FR 48127 · CSMS 66492057

Duty rate

Timber 10% · Cabinetry 25% (→50% Jan 1, 2026) · Furniture 25% (→30% Jan 1, 2026)

Start / status

Oct 14, 2025 (higher rates Jan 1, 2026)

Filed under Section 232. Timber/lumber duties sit between automotive and reciprocal stacks. Cabinetry/furniture drawback allowed. Affordable housing & health facility carve-outs administered by Commerce (CSMS 66492057).

Medium & heavy-duty vehicles, parts, buses (Proc. 10984)

90 FR 48451 · CSMS 66673533 · CSMS 66684128

Duty rate

25% on MHDVs/MHDPs; 10% on HTS 8702 kits (10+ passengers)

Start / status

Nov 1, 2025

Offsets offered for final-assembly producers meeting USMCA/T-MEC content targets; process compensates up to 31 Oct 2030 using FRN offsets (90 FR 48451). Sec. 232 duties not cumulative; knock-down kits older than 25 years remain in-scope if not qualifying for offsets.

Potential Section 232 investigations still pending

Commerce has open investigations across additional sectors; if determinations go against importers these feed into the same non-cumulative stack.

90 FR 16437 — Critical minerals (Sec. 232 investigation)90 FR 15950 — Pharmaceutical ingredients & finished drugs90 FR 15591 — Semiconductors90 FR 20273 — Commercial aircraft & jet engines90 FR 31955 — Polysilicon90 FR 31958 — Unmanned aircraft systems90 FR 41380 — Wind turbines, parts, components90 FR 46382 — Industrial machinery & robotics90 FR 46383 — Medical equipment / PPE / consumables

Escalation Monitor

Crisis outlook & timelines

China Tariff Deal Reached

SUSPENDED

Following the November 2025 Trump-Xi agreement, heightened reciprocal tariffs above 10% are suspended until November 10, 2026. A 10% reciprocal tariff remains in force, layered on top of existing Section 301 duties.

RECIPROCAL
10%
Baseline rate maintained
SUSPENSION ENDS
Nov 10
2026 (conditional)
SECTION 301
Still in Force
Lists 1–4 + 4-yr review

Current Structure: Importers must apply three layers: (1) Base HTSUS duty, (2) Section 301 rate per List 1–4 provisions, and (3) 10% reciprocal tariff—unless a specific exclusion applies.

Conditional: Suspension contingent on Chinese commitments regarding export controls, retaliation against U.S. firms, and agricultural purchases.

Key Dates & Actions:

  • Nov 4, 2025: Executive order suspending heightened reciprocal tariffs
  • Section 301 four-year review rates effective Sep 27, 2024 (89 FR 76581)
  • Product exclusions extended through May 31, 2025 (9903.88.69)
  • Additional exclusion extensions through Nov 29, 2025 for select products

Aggregate Tariff Impact

2025 tariff landscape overview - highest rates since the Great Depression

AVERAGE EFFECTIVE RATE
18%
Highest since 1934

Average tariff rate facing US consumers across all imports

2025 TOTAL TARIFF COST
$1.2T
S&P Global estimate

Cost to global businesses, mostly passed to consumers

ACTIVE PROGRAMS
12+
Overlapping tariff measures

Section 232, IEEPA, reciprocal, and country-specific tariffs

COUNTRIES AFFECTED
100+
Global trade partners impacted

Including major economies and developing nations

SHIPMENTS AFFECTED
1.36B
Annual shipments (de minimis)

Previously duty-free packages now subject to tariffs

KEY MEASURES
Steel/Aluminum50%
China (baseline)~44%
Autos25%
Reciprocal (base)10%
Timber/Lumber10%

Critical Escalation Pending

China 100% tariff threat (Nov 1) could increase total effective rate to ~144% on Chinese goods, potentially cutting off trade between world's two largest economies. Negotiations ongoing.

Trade War Escalation Timeline

Chronological progression of US-China trade tensions through 2025-2026

PAST ACTIONS (7)

De Minimis Eliminated for China/HK
May 2, 2025
HIGH

$800 duty-free threshold removed for Chinese imports

De Minimis Eliminated Globally
Aug 29, 2025
HIGH

$800 exemption removed for all countries, affecting 1.36B annual shipments

Reciprocal Exemptions Updated
Sep 8, 2025
MEDIUM

40 HTS codes added, 8 removed from reciprocal tariff exemptions

China Rare Earth Export Controls
Oct 8, 2025
CRITICAL

China announces restrictions on rare earth exports for military use

Deadline: Nov 8 & Dec 1, 2025
US 100% Tariff Threat on China
Oct 10, 2025
CRITICAL

100% tariff on all Chinese imports threatened (~144% total rate)

Deadline: November 1, 2025
Port Fees (Both Sides)
Oct 14, 2025
HIGH

US and China impose tit-for-tat maritime port fees, $3B+ annual cost

Section 232 Wood Products
Oct 14, 2025
MEDIUM

Timber (10%), cabinetry (25%), furniture (25%) tariffs effective

Deadline: Jan 1, 2026 (rate increases)

UPCOMING DEADLINES (5)

Trump-Xi Meeting (Expected)
Oct 31, 2025
HIGH

APEC summit in South Korea - potential breakthrough or escalation

100% China Tariff Deadline
Nov 1, 2025
CRITICAL

Deadline for 100% tariff implementation (may be delayed)

Status: Active
Rare Earth Controls Phase 1
Nov 8, 2025
CRITICAL

China Phase 1 rare earth export restrictions take effect

Rare Earth Controls Phase 2
Dec 1, 2025
CRITICAL

China Phase 2 rare earth export restrictions take effect

Wood Product Rate Increases
Jan 1, 2026
MEDIUM

Cabinetry to 50%, furniture to 30%

ACTION TYPE
US Action
China Action
Both Sides

Tariff Uncertainty Tracker

Monitoring threatened tariffs, pending investigations, negotiations, and legal challenges

⚠️

China 100% Tariff

November 1, 2025
MEDIUM
CRITICAL

100% tariff on all Chinese imports (on top of ~44%). Negotiations ongoing - may be delayed or averted.

Last Update:Oct 10, 2025 - Announced by President Trump

Trump-Xi APEC Summit

Late October 2025
HIGH
CRITICAL

Expected meeting in South Korea could result in tariff delays, modifications, trade agreement, or further escalation.

Last Update:Oct 2025 - Treasury Sec: negotiations "back on track"

Pharmaceutical Tariff Investigation

TBD
MEDIUM
HIGH

Up to 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals with >40% foreign sourcing if Commerce certifies threat.

Last Update:Sept 26, 2025 - Conditional tariff announced

Copper Sec. 232 Investigation

October 2025
HIGH
MEDIUM

Commerce Department investigation into copper imports. Report due October 2025, potential tariffs to follow.

Last Update:Ongoing - Report expected October 2025
⚖️

V.O.S. v. U.S. Court Challenge

Pending Supreme Court
MEDIUM
HIGH

Legal challenge to IEEPA tariff authority. Could invalidate reciprocal and China tariffs if successful.

Last Update:Pending Supreme Court review

Mexico Draft Tariff Legislation

Dec 31, 2026 (if enacted)
HIGH
MEDIUM

1,371 tariff codes on non-FTA countries. Submitted to Congress Sept 9, needs approval and 30-day delay.

Last Update:Sept 9, 2025 - Submitted to Congress
PROBABILITY
Very High - Likely to occur
High - Probable
Medium - Uncertain
Low - Unlikely
STATUS
⚠️Threatened - Announced but not implemented
Pending - Under investigation or review
🤝Negotiating - Active talks ongoing
⚖️Litigation - In court proceedings

Cost & Exposure Tools

Model landed costs & risk profiles

Trade Partner Risk Scores

Composite risk assessment combining tariff rates, pending threats, and strategic vulnerabilities

Risk Score Methodology

Composite score (0-100) based on:

  • Current effective tariff rate (weight: 30%)
  • Pending/threatened tariffs (weight: 40%)
  • Port fee exposure (weight: 10%)
  • Strategic vulnerabilities (rare earth, etc.) (weight: 10%)
  • FTA protection status (weight: 10%)

Tariff Stack Calculator

Calculate which tariffs apply to your import and the total effective rate

E-Commerce Impact Calculator

Calculate how de minimis elimination affects your cross-border e-commerce costs

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About De Minimis Elimination

  • De minimis exemption eliminated for China/Hong Kong on May 2, 2025
  • Expanded to all countries on August 29, 2025
  • Affects 1.36 billion annual shipments previously duty-free
  • Major impact on platforms like Shein, Temu, AliExpress, and direct-to-consumer e-commerce

Reciprocal Exemptions — What changed?

Effective · announced

What is this? How to use

This table tracks updates to Annex II (the list of products exempt from the Reciprocal Tariff under EO 14257, as modified Sep 5, 2025).

  • Changes (delta) shows what was added or removed in the latest order.
  • All current exemptions computes the live list: (previous − removed) ∪ added.
  • Claim the exemption at entry with HTS 9903.01.32 (see sources for official guidance).

Tips: filter by chapter, search code or text, expand/collapse chapters, and export the visible table as CSV.

KindHTS codeDescriptionChapter
No rows match your filters.

Disclaimer: This feature is an informational summary of official sources. It is not legal advice and does not replace the HTS, Federal Register notices, or CBP guidance. Classification controls; verify against primary sources before filing.

Mexico Outlook

Draft legislation & exposure

Mexico Draft Tariff - Legislative Status

NOT YET ENACTED

Tracking legislative progress of Mexico's proposed tariff increases on non-FTA countries

Tariff Codes
1,371
Sectors
19
Import Value
$52B
Jobs Protected
325,000
Est. Revenue
$3.76B

Legislative Process Timeline

Submitted to Congress
President Sheinbaum submitted draft decree to Mexican Congress
2025-09-09
Congressional Review
Bill under discussion by Mexican Congress
Current
Congressional Approval
Requires approval from both chambers of Congress
TBD
Publication in Official Gazette
Approved bill must be published in Diario Oficial de la Federación
TBD
Enter into Force
30-day delay after publication before taking effect
TBD + 30 days
Expiration
Tariffs valid through December 31, 2026 (if enacted)
2026-12-31

Key Details

  • Scope: 1,371 tariff codes covering 19 sectors including automotive, textiles, plastics, steel, appliances, aluminum, toys, furniture, and footwear
  • Rates: Differentiated tariffs of 10%, 20%, 30%, 35%, and up to 50% depending on sector
  • Exemptions: Imports from countries with valid free trade agreements will NOT be affected and continue to enjoy preferential treatment
  • FTA Partners: USMCA (US, Canada), EU-Mexico, CPTPP, EFTA, Central America, and 20+ bilateral FTAs
  • Primary Targets: Non-FTA countries like China (16.8% import share), India (2.4%), South Korea (2%), Brazil (1.7%)
  • Revenue: Expected to generate 70 billion pesos (~$3.76 billion USD) for the government
  • Duration: If enacted, valid through December 31, 2026

Important Notice

These tariffs are NOT YET IN EFFECT. The bill requires Congressional approval, publication in the Official Gazette, and a 30-day waiting period before implementation. Timeline is uncertain.

Mexico — DraftProposals sent to Congress · Sep 11, 2025Applies to non-FTA countries

Mexico: Proposed tariff bands for “strategic industries” (not enacted)

Included for situational awareness alongside U.S. measures. These proposals would apply to imports from countries without a free trade agreement (FTA) with Mexico; FTA partners are generally outside scope (subject to rules of origin).

SECTORS 19TARIFF LINES 1,463IMPORTS IMPACTED $52,000,000,000SHARE OF IMPORTS 8.6%JOBS PROTECTED 325,000

Sources: Mexican legislative proposal and supporting official materials (Sep 11, 2025).

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FTA partners (exempt)

25 countries + blocs
USMCA(U.S., Canada)EU–Mexico FTA(EU (27))CPTPP(10 partners)EFTA(Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland)
United StatesCanadaAustraliaBruneiChileJapanMalaysiaNew ZealandPeruSingaporeVietnamIcelandLiechtensteinNorwaySwitzerlandCosta RicaEl SalvadorGuatemalaHondurasNicaraguaUnited KingdomIsraelPanamaUruguayColombia

Sources: Secretaría de Economía; WTO RTA database. Modernized EU–MX deal pending ratification; the 2000 FTA remains in force.

No FTA with Mexico (example partners)

A–Z
ArgentinaBrazilChinaEgyptIndiaIndonesiaKorea, Rep.MoroccoPhilippinesRussiaSaudi ArabiaSouth AfricaTaiwanThailandTurkeyUnited Arab Emirates

Draft bands would apply to these unless Mexico concludes a new FTA or carves them out. Partial-scope agreements (e.g., some Mercosur/auto accords) are not full FTAs and are treated as in scope unless Mexico specifies otherwise.

Proposed tariff bands for strategic industries (not enacted)

Applies to countries with no FTA with Mexico. This section summarizes official proposal materials. Use for situational awareness only.

#SectorLinesCurrent MFNProposed
1Steel (Acero (steel))410–50%50%
2Chemicals (Químico)1860–35%15–50%
3Textiles I (Textil (I))3280–35%10–50%
4Footwear (Calzado)760–25%35–50%
5Plastics & rubber (Plásticos y hule)1380–20%7–45%
6Wood (Madera)600–10%5–15%
7Paper & cardboard (Papel y cartón)1250–20%5–25%
8Textiles II (Textil (II))3980–25%15–50%
9Glass (Vidrio)933–10%7–25%
10Aluminum (Aluminio)580–10%10–25%
11Tools (Herramientas)140–15%5–25%
12Motors & transformers (Motores y transformadores)970–20%5–25%
13Electrical material (Material eléctrico)700–15%5–25%
14Toys (Juguetes)600–20%5–35%
15Finishes (Acabados)596–15%10–25%
16Intermediates (BIS) (BIS (intermedios))560–20%5–25%*
17Vehicles & trucks (Vehículos y camiones)190–25%10–35%

Disclaimer: These measures are proposals sent to Congress and may change at any time. Do not rely on this for classification or duty payment.

Mexico draft — non-FTA exposure (prototype)

score = import share × tariff rate
PartnerImport share5% rate10% rate25% rate50% rate
No data found at /data/exposure/mx_shares.json.

Prototype: import shares are placeholders until we connect a vetted data source. Exposure is a high-level signal only; sector mix and rules-of-origin may materially change actual outcomes.