LIVE RESEARCH PROTOTYPE
Tariff Pulse
A timeline of implemented U.S. tariff actions under IEEPA and Section 232 since Apr 3, 2025 — grouped by month with sources.
Escalation Monitor
Crisis outlook & timelines
Escalation Monitor
Crisis outlook & timelines
China 100% Tariff Threat
CRITICALPresident Trump announced a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports on top of existing ~44% rates, bringing the total effective rate to approximately 144% — the highest US tariff rate in modern history.
Latest: Treasury Secretary Bessent stated negotiations are "back on track" and the tariff "does not have to happen." Trump-Xi meeting expected at APEC summit in South Korea late October.
Context:
- Retaliation for China's rare earth export controls (effective Nov 8 & Dec 1)
- Includes export controls on "critical software" to China
- Would effectively cut off trade between world's two largest economies
- Part of escalating trade war including maritime port fees (Oct 14)
Aggregate Tariff Impact
2025 tariff landscape overview - highest rates since the Great Depression
Average tariff rate facing US consumers across all imports
Cost to global businesses, mostly passed to consumers
Section 232, IEEPA, reciprocal, and country-specific tariffs
Including major economies and developing nations
Previously duty-free packages now subject to tariffs
Critical Escalation Pending
China 100% tariff threat (Nov 1) could increase total effective rate to ~144% on Chinese goods, potentially cutting off trade between world's two largest economies. Negotiations ongoing.
Trade War Escalation Timeline
Chronological progression of US-China trade tensions through 2025-2026
PAST ACTIONS (7)
$800 duty-free threshold removed for Chinese imports
$800 exemption removed for all countries, affecting 1.36B annual shipments
40 HTS codes added, 8 removed from reciprocal tariff exemptions
China announces restrictions on rare earth exports for military use
100% tariff on all Chinese imports threatened (~144% total rate)
US and China impose tit-for-tat maritime port fees, $3B+ annual cost
Timber (10%), cabinetry (25%), furniture (25%) tariffs effective
UPCOMING DEADLINES (5)
APEC summit in South Korea - potential breakthrough or escalation
Deadline for 100% tariff implementation (may be delayed)
China Phase 1 rare earth export restrictions take effect
China Phase 2 rare earth export restrictions take effect
Cabinetry to 50%, furniture to 30%
Tariff Uncertainty Tracker
Monitoring threatened tariffs, pending investigations, negotiations, and legal challenges
China 100% Tariff
100% tariff on all Chinese imports (on top of ~44%). Negotiations ongoing - may be delayed or averted.
Trump-Xi APEC Summit
Expected meeting in South Korea could result in tariff delays, modifications, trade agreement, or further escalation.
Pharmaceutical Tariff Investigation
Up to 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals with >40% foreign sourcing if Commerce certifies threat.
Copper Sec. 232 Investigation
Commerce Department investigation into copper imports. Report due October 2025, potential tariffs to follow.
V.O.S. v. U.S. Court Challenge
Legal challenge to IEEPA tariff authority. Could invalidate reciprocal and China tariffs if successful.
Mexico Draft Tariff Legislation
1,371 tariff codes on non-FTA countries. Submitted to Congress Sept 9, needs approval and 30-day delay.
Cost & Exposure Tools
Model landed costs & risk profiles
Cost & Exposure Tools
Model landed costs & risk profiles
Trade Partner Risk Scores
Composite risk assessment combining tariff rates, pending threats, and strategic vulnerabilities
Risk Score Methodology
Composite score (0-100) based on:
- •Current effective tariff rate (weight: 30%)
- •Pending/threatened tariffs (weight: 40%)
- •Port fee exposure (weight: 10%)
- •Strategic vulnerabilities (rare earth, etc.) (weight: 10%)
- •FTA protection status (weight: 10%)
Tariff Stack Calculator
Calculate which tariffs apply to your import and the total effective rate
E-Commerce Impact Calculator
Calculate how de minimis elimination affects your cross-border e-commerce costs
About De Minimis Elimination
- •De minimis exemption eliminated for China/Hong Kong on May 2, 2025
- •Expanded to all countries on August 29, 2025
- •Affects 1.36 billion annual shipments previously duty-free
- •Major impact on platforms like Shein, Temu, AliExpress, and direct-to-consumer e-commerce
Reciprocal Exemptions — What changed?
What is this? How to use
What is this? How to use
This table tracks updates to Annex II (the list of products exempt from the Reciprocal Tariff under EO 14257, as modified Sep 5, 2025).
- Changes (delta) shows what was added or removed in the latest order.
- All current exemptions computes the live list:
(previous − removed) ∪ added. - Claim the exemption at entry with HTS
9903.01.32(see sources for official guidance).
Tips: filter by chapter, search code or text, expand/collapse chapters, and export the visible table as CSV.
| Kind | HTS code | Description | Chapter |
|---|---|---|---|
| No rows match your filters. | |||
Disclaimer: This feature is an informational summary of official sources. It is not legal advice and does not replace the HTS, Federal Register notices, or CBP guidance. Classification controls; verify against primary sources before filing.
Mexico Outlook
Draft legislation & exposure
Mexico Outlook
Draft legislation & exposure
Mexico Draft Tariff - Legislative Status
NOT YET ENACTEDTracking legislative progress of Mexico's proposed tariff increases on non-FTA countries
Legislative Process Timeline
Key Details
- •Scope: 1,371 tariff codes covering 19 sectors including automotive, textiles, plastics, steel, appliances, aluminum, toys, furniture, and footwear
- •Rates: Differentiated tariffs of 10%, 20%, 30%, 35%, and up to 50% depending on sector
- •Exemptions: Imports from countries with valid free trade agreements will NOT be affected and continue to enjoy preferential treatment
- •FTA Partners: USMCA (US, Canada), EU-Mexico, CPTPP, EFTA, Central America, and 20+ bilateral FTAs
- •Primary Targets: Non-FTA countries like China (16.8% import share), India (2.4%), South Korea (2%), Brazil (1.7%)
- •Revenue: Expected to generate 70 billion pesos (~$3.76 billion USD) for the government
- •Duration: If enacted, valid through December 31, 2026
Important Notice
These tariffs are NOT YET IN EFFECT. The bill requires Congressional approval, publication in the Official Gazette, and a 30-day waiting period before implementation. Timeline is uncertain.
Mexico — DraftProposals sent to Congress · Sep 11, 2025Applies to non-FTA countriesMexico: Proposed tariff bands for “strategic industries” (not enacted)
Included for situational awareness alongside U.S. measures. These proposals would apply to imports from countries without a free trade agreement (FTA) with Mexico; FTA partners are generally outside scope (subject to rules of origin).
SECTORS 19TARIFF LINES 1,463IMPORTS IMPACTED $52,000,000,000SHARE OF IMPORTS 8.6%JOBS PROTECTED 325,000Sources: Mexican legislative proposal and supporting official materials (Sep 11, 2025).
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Mexico: Proposed tariff bands for “strategic industries” (not enacted)
Included for situational awareness alongside U.S. measures. These proposals would apply to imports from countries without a free trade agreement (FTA) with Mexico; FTA partners are generally outside scope (subject to rules of origin).
Sources: Mexican legislative proposal and supporting official materials (Sep 11, 2025).
FTA partners (exempt)
25 countries + blocsSources: Secretaría de Economía; WTO RTA database. Modernized EU–MX deal pending ratification; the 2000 FTA remains in force.
No FTA with Mexico (example partners)
A–ZDraft bands would apply to these unless Mexico concludes a new FTA or carves them out. Partial-scope agreements (e.g., some Mercosur/auto accords) are not full FTAs and are treated as in scope unless Mexico specifies otherwise.
Proposed tariff bands for strategic industries (not enacted)
Applies to countries with no FTA with Mexico. This section summarizes official proposal materials. Use for situational awareness only.
| # | Sector | Lines | Current MFN | Proposed |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steel (Acero (steel)) | 41 | 0–50% | 50% |
| 2 | Chemicals (Químico) | 186 | 0–35% | 15–50% |
| 3 | Textiles I (Textil (I)) | 328 | 0–35% | 10–50% |
| 4 | Footwear (Calzado) | 76 | 0–25% | 35–50% |
| 5 | Plastics & rubber (Plásticos y hule) | 138 | 0–20% | 7–45% |
| 6 | Wood (Madera) | 60 | 0–10% | 5–15% |
| 7 | Paper & cardboard (Papel y cartón) | 125 | 0–20% | 5–25% |
| 8 | Textiles II (Textil (II)) | 398 | 0–25% | 15–50% |
| 9 | Glass (Vidrio) | 93 | 3–10% | 7–25% |
| 10 | Aluminum (Aluminio) | 58 | 0–10% | 10–25% |
| 11 | Tools (Herramientas) | 14 | 0–15% | 5–25% |
| 12 | Motors & transformers (Motores y transformadores) | 97 | 0–20% | 5–25% |
| 13 | Electrical material (Material eléctrico) | 70 | 0–15% | 5–25% |
| 14 | Toys (Juguetes) | 60 | 0–20% | 5–35% |
| 15 | Finishes (Acabados) | 59 | 6–15% | 10–25% |
| 16 | Intermediates (BIS) (BIS (intermedios)) | 56 | 0–20% | 5–25%* |
| 17 | Vehicles & trucks (Vehículos y camiones) | 19 | 0–25% | 10–35% |
Disclaimer: These measures are proposals sent to Congress and may change at any time. Do not rely on this for classification or duty payment.
Mexico draft — non-FTA exposure (prototype)
score = import share × tariff rate| Partner | Import share | 5% rate | 10% rate | 25% rate | 50% rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
No data found at /data/exposure/mx_shares.json. | |||||
Prototype: import shares are placeholders until we connect a vetted data source. Exposure is a high-level signal only; sector mix and rules-of-origin may materially change actual outcomes.