THE PERIODIC TABLE
OF POWER
Why the U.S.-Mexico Critical Minerals Deal Could Really Be a Technology Sovereignty Play
One Page, Continental Scope
The gap between the document's length and its implications is staggering.
“Both governments framed this explicitly in the context of the USMCA Joint Review — treating critical minerals not as a side conversation but as a structural pillar.
What's in the Ground
Mexico produces or has significant reserves of at least 12 of the 60 minerals on the USGS 2025 Critical Minerals List
Global Ranking by Mineral
Additional minerals
Electronics, solar PV, conductors
Clean energy, EVs, grid infrastructure
Aerospace, defense, energy steel alloys
Li-ion battery anodes
Batteries (all types)
Major Deposit Regions
From Mine to Machine
Hover over any mineral or technology to see the dependency chain. Every exponential technology depends on specific minerals — and those minerals increasingly flow through geopolitically contested supply chains.
“The country or region that controls critical mineral supply chains determines who participates in the next generation of technological development.
This is what makes the U.S.-Mexico action plan fundamentally different from a trade deal about rocks. It is an infrastructure play for the AI, quantum, and clean energy eras simultaneously.
The Missing Chapter
The critical minerals action plan connects to the broader USMCA 2.0 framework — but as a structural pillar, not an afterthought.
Automotive Rules of Origin
Established
Digital Trade Provisions
Established
Critical Minerals Chapter
Under Negotiation
The Proposed Chapter Would Include:
“The raw materials are here. The manufacturing base is here. The question is whether the institutional architecture will connect them.
Opportunity Meets Friction
Mexico's regulatory landscape presents both promising signals and structural barriers. The gap between rhetoric and delivery remains the critical variable.
Signals of Openness
Structural Challenges
Gap between policy rhetoric and regulatory delivery
“The Action Plan assumes a regulatory environment that attracts private capital at scale. Mexico's current framework, despite its promising rhetorical direction, has not yet delivered that environment.
We've Been Here Before
The cautionary analogy. A pattern where narrative precedes institutional delivery.
Nearshoring
2020 — 2025
Critical Minerals
2026 — ?
Average Mine Development
Years
S&P Global: Discovery to first production, 2020-2023
Action Plan Window
Days
To develop the bilateral action plan
Four Requirements for Success
USMCA Integration
Critical minerals as a substantive chapter, not an appendix. Rules of origin, processing standards, investment facilitation comparable to automotive and digital trade.
Regulatory Clarity
Publish implementing regulations for 2023 Mining Law reform. Establish concession framework balancing environmental/community protections with investment certainty.
Processing Over Extraction
Build refining and processing capacity on the continent. "China dominates not because it has the most minerals, but because it built the processing infrastructure."
Joint R&D
Extraction technologies, recycling processes, alternative materials. Universities, national labs, private sector — frameworks like NADICI provide connective tissue.
The Stakes
China's Share — Mining
of world's rare earth mining
China's Share — Processing
of world's rare earth processing
October 2025 truce: one-year reprieve on export curbs. Restrictions remain tighter than before.
“The minerals are in the ground. The question is whether the institutions, regulations, and investment frameworks will rise to meet the challenge.”
North America has been here before. The outcome is not predetermined. But the clock started on February 4.