A Three-Nation Employment Analysis
Jobs at Risk
A Three-Nation Analysis of Employment Vulnerability Under USMCA Trade Disruptions
Daniel Covarrubias, Ph.D.
Director, Texas Center for Border Economic and Enterprise Development, TAMIU
The USMCA governs $2 trillion in annual trade and directly connects to 9.9 million jobs across the United States, Mexico, and Canada. This analysis — the most comprehensive of its kind — maps exactly where those jobs are, what sectors they're in, and how vulnerable they are to tariff disruptions, policy changes, and the 2026 USMCA review.
The Research Series
Continental Overview
Three studies mapping employment vulnerability across every sector and region of North America's integrated continental market.
United States
Employment Vulnerability Study
- 15 states analyzed
- Manufacturing: 3.7M jobs
- Agriculture/Mining: 633K jobs
- Top states: Texas (805K), Michigan (672K), California, Ohio, Illinois
Mexico
Employment Vulnerability Study
- 15 states analyzed
- Manufacturing: 2.8M jobs
- Agriculture/Mining: 1.5M jobs
- Top states: Jalisco (442K), Estado de Mexico (434K), Baja California
Canada
Employment Vulnerability Study
- 11 provinces and territories analyzed
- Manufacturing: 1.1M jobs
- Ag, Forestry/Mining: 426K jobs
- Top provinces: Ontario (589K), Quebec (326K), Alberta (269K)
U.S. State-by-State Data
Where the Jobs Are
4.3 million American jobs across 15 states are directly exposed to USMCA trade disruptions. Explore the data by sector.
Total Jobs Exposed
15 most exposed U.S. states, ranked
U.S. Sector Breakdown
4.3M total jobs exposed
Mexico State-by-State Data
Where Mexico's Jobs Are
4.1 million Mexican jobs across 15 states are directly exposed to USMCA trade disruptions. Explore the data by sector.
Total Jobs Exposed
15 most exposed Mexican states, ranked
Mexico Sector Breakdown
4.1M total jobs exposed
Canada Province-by-Province Data
Where Canada's Jobs Are
1.5 million Canadian jobs across 11 provinces and territories are directly exposed to USMCA trade disruptions. Explore the data by sector.
Total Jobs Exposed
11 most exposed Canadian provinces and territories, ranked
Canada Sector Breakdown
1.5M total jobs exposed
The Deadline
Why This Matters Now
The USMCA mandatory review begins July 2026. The outcome will determine the fate of 9.9 million jobs across three nations.
The USMCA — the trade agreement governing commerce between the United States, Mexico, and Canada — contains a mandatory six-year review clause. That clock runs out in July 2026.
Three outcomes are possible. Each carries fundamentally different implications for the 9.9 million jobs our research has identified as directly connected to trilateral trade flows.
Full Renewal
All three nations affirm the agreement for another 16 years. Markets stabilize, investment returns.
Renegotiation
Parties agree to continue but open specific chapters for amendment. Uncertainty persists in targeted sectors.
Sunset Countdown
Failure to affirm triggers a 10-year wind-down. Investment freezes, supply chains fragment.
States like Texas and Michigan aren't just border stories — they're the backbone of continental manufacturing integration. Texas alone has 805,000 jobs tied to USMCA trade flows. Michigan's 672,000 exposed jobs reflect the deep automotive integration between Detroit and Ontario.
Without the USMCA framework, these jobs face tariff exposure, supply chain fragmentation, and investment uncertainty. The 9.9 million figure represents real employment — real families, real communities — connected to the trilateral trade system.
“North America has evolved into a continental market that commands 30% of global GDP, processes $3.5 million in cross-border commerce every minute, and generates $1.8 trillion in annual intra-regional trade.”
Related Research
Policy Frameworks
The employment vulnerability analysis connects to a broader body of policy work on North American economic integration.
Transparency
Methodology & Sources
About the Researcher
Daniel Covarrubias, Ph.D.
- Director, Texas Center for Border Economic and Enterprise Development (TCBEED) at TAMIU
- Standing Committee, National Academies Transportation Research Board
- CBP Commercial Customs Operations Advisory Committee (COAC)
- Author: "Navigating the New Era of U.S.-México Trade"
- Media: Wall Street Journal, PBS, Texas Standard, El Financiero
Get the Full Reports
Download the complete employment vulnerability studies for each nation, including detailed sector breakdowns and regional analysis.