USMCA 2026 Review
Modernizing North America's Most Important Trade Agreement
The USMCA joint review on July 1, 2026 will determine the future of $1.8 trillion in annual trilateral trade, 56 million jobs, and North America's competitive position against China and the EU.
$1.8T
Annual trilateral trade
56.2M
Jobs across three nations
Jul 1, 2026
Review deadline
30%
Share of global GDP
Daniel Covarrubias, Ph.D.
Texas Center for Border Economic and Enterprise Development, TAMIU
Why This Matters
What's at Stake
The USMCA entered into force on July 1, 2020, replacing NAFTA after 26 years. Article 34.7 requires a six-year joint review where all three parties must decide: extend the agreement for another 16 years (through 2042), negotiate changes, or trigger a 10-year sunset countdown ending in 2036. The deadline is July 1, 2026.
USTR Jamieson Greer told Congress in December 2025 that “a rubber stamp of the Agreement is not in the national interest.” USTR held public hearings December 3–5, 2025 at the International Trade Commission. Mexico and Canada opened parallel public comment periods in September 2025. The bureaucratic machinery is moving — but toward what outcome?
This is not a routine review. It unfolds during the most volatile North American trade environment since NAFTA's inception — with 25% tariffs on most Mexican and Canadian goods, 10% on Canadian energy, 90-day extension cycles, and what Dr. Covarrubias calls “The Infinity Loop” of perpetual policy uncertainty. Businesses cannot plan. Investment freezes. Supply chains fragment. And 9.9 million jobs across three nations hang in the balance.
“North America has evolved into a continental market that commands 30% of global GDP, processes $3.5 million in cross-border commerce every minute, and generates $1.8 trillion in annual intra-regional trade. The question is whether we will govern it deliberately — or let it fracture by default.”
The Process
Road to July 2026
Key milestones in the USMCA joint review process — from public comment to decision day.
Sep 17, 2025
Comment Period Opens
Nov 3, 2025
Comments Close
Dec 3–5, 2025
USTR Public Hearing
Dec 16–17, 2025
Congressional Briefings
Jan 2, 2026
Congressional Assessment Due
Q1 2026
Preparatory Negotiations
Q2 2026
Draft Recommendations
Jul 1, 2026
Decision Day
Scroll to see full timeline →
Sep 17, 2025
Comment Period Opens
USTR opens Federal Register comment period; Mexico and Canada open parallel consultations.
Nov 3, 2025
Comments Close
Public comment period closes after receiving thousands of submissions from industry, labor, and civil society.
Dec 3–5, 2025
USTR Public Hearing
USTR public hearing at the International Trade Commission in Washington, D.C.
Dec 16–17, 2025
Congressional Briefings
USTR Greer briefs House Ways & Means Committee and Senate Finance Committee.
Jan 2, 2026
Congressional Assessment Due
USTR must provide Congress a formal assessment and review plan (180-day statutory requirement).
Q1 2026
Preparatory Negotiations
Preparatory trilateral negotiations expected between U.S., Mexico, and Canada trade officials.
Current StageQ2 2026
Draft Recommendations
Draft recommendations circulate among the three parties for review and comment.
Jul 1, 2026
Decision Day
Free Trade Commission convenes — the three nations must decide the future of the agreement.
Scenarios
Three Paths Forward
Article 34.7 gives the three nations three choices. Each carries fundamentally different implications for 56 million jobs and $1.8 trillion in trade.
Negotiation Priorities
What's on the Table
Six critical areas that will define the scope and ambition of the 2026 review.
Automotive Rules of Origin
Content calculations, EV exemptions, battery and critical mineral sourcing requirements. The auto sector is the most integrated cross-border industry in North America — and the most contested.
China in North America
U.S. wants tighter controls on Chinese investment in Mexico. Proposed tariffs up to 500% on Mexico-assembled Chinese EVs. Transshipment concerns reshape the entire negotiation.
Digital Trade & AI
Chapter 19 needs updating for AI governance, cross-border data flows, and cybersecurity. Canada's digital services tax remains a flashpoint between Ottawa and Washington.
Labor Enforcement
Rapid Response Mechanism results under review. 105 House Democrats pushing for stronger worker protections. The wage gap between Mexico and U.S./Canada persists.
Energy Integration
Differential tariff treatment — 10% on Canadian energy vs. 25% on goods — creates distortions. U.S. companies face discriminatory treatment in Mexico's energy market.
Border Security & Trade
Security concerns (fentanyl, migration) being used to justify trade disruptions via IEEPA. The challenge: separate security enforcement from commercial facilitation.
A Trilateral Solution
USMCA 2.0
Three Pillars for North American Competitiveness
A comprehensive framework proposed by Dr. Daniel Covarrubias for modernizing North American trade governance through security, technology, and industrial coordination.
SECURITY
Binational Customs Agency (BCA)
Separates security enforcement from commercial facilitation through joint customs operations.
- Co-authored with Ambassador Gerónimo Gutiérrez (former Mexican Ambassador to the U.S.)
- Shared objectives, information exchange protocols, trusted trader programs
- Addresses the false choice between security and commerce at the border
TECHNOLOGY
NADICI
North American Digital Infrastructure Coordination Initiative — AI, blockchain, IoT, and autonomous vehicles converging at the border.
- AI-enabled customs for simultaneous efficiency and security screening
- 7.3 million commercial trucks annually at the U.S.–Mexico border
- $55B annual compliance costs from data fragmentation across three systems
INDUSTRIAL POLICY
NAICC
North American Industrial Coordination Council — coordinate comparative advantages across the continent.
- U.S. (innovation/R&D), Mexico (manufacturing/labor), Canada (critical minerals/resources)
- Address the China challenge through continental strength, not reactive tariffs
- Trilateral framework for coordinated technology and industrial policy
Related Analysis
The Full Picture
This analysis connects to a broader body of research on North American economic integration.
About the Researcher
Daniel Covarrubias, Ph.D.
- Director, Texas Center for Border Economic and Enterprise Development (TCBEED)
- A.R. Sanchez, Jr. School of Business, Texas A&M International University
- Standing Committee, National Academies Transportation Research Board
- CBP Commercial Customs Operations Advisory Committee (COAC)
- Media: Wall Street Journal, Texas Standard, PBS, El Financiero
- Published: Wilson Quarterly, AIB Insights, Rio Grande Guardian
Stay Informed
Follow the USMCA review process with analysis from the Texas Center for Border Economic and Enterprise Development.