The Bridge · #003 · April 2026
Two Surpluses, Opposite Directions
The U.S. runs a services surplus with both neighbors. With Mexico it's growing. With Canada it's shrinking.
As published: BEA, February 2026 release.
What the post found · February 2026 figures
Source: BEA International Transactions Accounts; FT-900 exhibit 20b (Feb 2026 and Sep 2026 releases). Read “The $247 Billion in North American Trade That Never Makes the Headlines” on The Bridge →
What the June revision changed
The post used BEA's February release and added Census-basis goods to BEA services. BEA's June 2026 annual revision puts both on the balance-of-payments basis. U.S.-Mexico goods and services for 2025 come to $971.0B on that basis.
The argument holds: Mexico still moves more goods, Canada more services, and the services surplus with Mexico still grows while Canada's shrinks. One number moves: on one basis, services offset 50% of the goods deficit with Canada, not the post's 62%.
BEA and Census, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, July 2026 (Sep 3, 2026), exhibits 20a and 20b, balance of payments basis.
| 2025, $ billions | As published | Revised |
|---|---|---|
| Mexico, goods | 872.9 | 878.5 |
| Mexico, services | 96.4 | 92.5 |
| Mexico, total | 969.3 | 971.0 |
| Canada, goods | 719.5 | 723.1 |
| Canada, services | 150.2 | 156.8 |
| Canada, total | 869.7 | 879.9 |
The $247 Billion in North American Trade That Never Makes the Headlines
Covarrubias, D. (2026). Two Surpluses, Opposite Directions. The Bridge #003, "The $247 Billion in North American Trade That Never Makes the Headlines". Daniel Covarrubias Labs. https://labs.drdanielcovarrubias.com/charts/bridge-003/surplus-trends.